NFIB Optimism Index: Small Business Still Cautious

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) has just released the Small Business Economic Trends Report for June 2010. The report published since 1973 measures small business sentiment on numerous economic and business factors that confront small businesses.

This months report indicates that small business optimism continues to improve. The NFIB index rose 1.6 points to 92.2 recording the highest level of the index since September of 2008.

During the month seven of the 10 index components rose, with job creation and capital expenditure plans recording minuscule increases. The Index rose above the 90 level for the first time in 21 months ending the longest period of negative sentiment in the four decade history of the index.

Though seven of the ten index components rose, small business job creation remains weak. The hemorrhaging of job losses has abated employment opportunities with small businesses is not materializing. Employment is a critical component of the Index and is understood as an important sign of economic recovery. During the month small businesses continued to layoff workers registering a negative .5 per respondent. This records the weakest reading for small business employment for the past three months. The NFIB Index corroborates employment trends recently reported by ADP's National Employment Report and the Department of Labor. 

The small business sector is not contributing to private sector employment growth. This is a troubling concern because it is widely understood that small businesses need to be a leading driver for job creation to sustain economic recovery. As we stated last month, historically small businesses have been the major driver in job creation following recessions. The poor job creation reading by the index continues to be a contra indicator of economic recovery. Small business owners are by nature and temperament optimistic and the report indicates that small businesses are still very cautious about allocation capital for jobs to meet improving business conditions.

Highlights of the Report:

• Jobs: 9% percent of respondents reported unfilled job openings. Over the next three months, 7 % plan to reduce employment and 14 % plan to create new jobs.

• Credit: 32% of respondents looking for financing report difficulties in arranging credit. 13% reported loans harder to get than in their last attempt. Overall, 92% of the owners reported all their credit needs met.

• Profits: 17%of respondents reported higher earnings while 49% of respondents reported a decline in profits.

• Prices: 14% reported raising average selling prices, and 28% reported average price reductions.

• Capital Spending: A net 20% of respondents planned to make a capital expenditure within the next three months, 5% planned a facilities expansion and a net 8% expect business conditions to improve over the next six months.

• Sales: 23% of all owners reported higher sales while 38% reported lower sales.

Overview of the Report

The NFIB Optimism Index records that small business sentiment and business conditions are improving but hint that small businesses are not fully participating in a vibrant economic recovery story. The survey indicates that small businesses remain reluctant to create new jobs. Until this improves, demand in the larger economy and stimulation drivers for small business growth will remain weak.

Earnings and capital expenditures tend to correlate in the absence of subdued credit channels. More businesses are required to self fund expansion initiatives and capital expenditures. With earnings down small businesses spending will remain weak creating yet another headwind to market demand for goods and services.

As government stimulus programs come to a close it is crucial that small and mid-sized businesses (SME) become a lead driver in the recovery. Though the NFIB index indicates that business conditions and sentiment is improving the financial health and overall psychology of the sector seems ambivalent to its critical role in economic recovery scenarios.

About the NFIB Index

Components of the Optimism Index include: Labor Markets, Capital Spending, Inventory and Sales, Inflation, Profits and Wages and Credit Markets. This months survey recorded the responses of 823 NFIB members and concluded May 31.

The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since1986. The sample is drawn from the membership files of the NFIB.

The NFIB Report can be downloaded from the Sum2 website. NFIB Optimism Index

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Risk: SME, small business, economic recovery, NFIB

ADP Reports Anemic Job Growth

ADP has released its National Employment Report for May.   Non-farm private employment increased 55,000 during  the month on a seasonally adjusted basis.   ADP also reported an upward revision of 33,000 jobs for March, bringing the number of new jobs created during the month to 65,000.  The three consecutive net employment gains reported by ADP indicates that while the number of new job creation remains modest, positive momentum is developing.

A stabilized labor market is a key ingredient to a sustained economic recovery.  The economy lost over 9 million jobs during the recession and recovery will require the creation of 200,000 new jobs per month for the next 4 years to get back to pre-recession employment levels.  Last years massive Federal stimulus programs directed funds to state and local governments to help stem layoffs. The expiration of those programs will force fiscally challenged local governments to resort to austerity measures that will require the public sector to trim jobs.

Macroeconomic factors continue to be challenging the economic recovery.  The sovereign fiscal crisis in Europe, slowing growth in China, tepid credit markets and political uncertainty counterbalance the positive effects of a stabilizing housing market, low interest rates and benign  inflation.

The economic impact of the Gulf oil spill will not be confined to the region. The local aqua-cultural industries, fishing and tourism to the region has been immediately impacted by the spill.  A prolonged duration of the event will have a profound impact on the economies of the entire Caribbean. The economies and fiscal stability of American cities such as Pensacola, Mobile, Tampa,  New Orleans and Key West are directly threatened by the unfolding events.  Cities and regions along the Texas Coast and Mexico also remain remain at risk and share the unfortunate distinction of being in the probability cross hairs of suffering extreme toxic damage as a result of a hurricane.  Shipping lanes and the closure of ports due to oil contamination could impact America's vital agricultural industry.  The moratorium on deep water drilling has placed pressure on the oils services sector and may impact the industries long term financial health.   The impact on the price of oil and refined petroleum products remains to be seen.

Highlights of the ADP  report include:

Estimates non-farm private employment in the service-providing sector increased by 55,000.

Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 23,000

Employment in the manufacturing sector rose 15,000

Employment in the services sector rose 78,000.

Large businesses with 500 or more workers  added 3,000 jobs

Medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers increased by 39,000

Employment among small-size businesses with fewer than 50 workers, increased by 13,000

Overview of Numbers

The net gain of 52,000 jobs in the small and mid-sized enterprise (SME) sector, compared to the creation of 3,000 jobs in large enterprises is a telling statistic about the changing topology of the US job market.   During the past decade, a large proportion of job growth occurred in the public and small mid-size enterprises (SME) sector.  Large businesses have led the way in implementing lean enterprises and have outsourced and off shored many jobs and business functions to accomplish this. Job creation by SME's during the past month represented over 90% of new job creation.  America's reinvention and economic renaissance must be led by the SME sector.  It is vital that capital formation initiatives and credit availability is positioned to foster the growth and development of the SME sector.

This months ADP report is an indication that the US economy continues at the bottom of an extreme down economic cycle.  The danger of a double dip recession unfortunately still lurks as a possibility.  The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the potential of market contagion from EU credit distress, China's slowdown and the anemic rate of job creation in the wake of massive government expenditures and budget deficits presents continuing challenges to a sustained and robust recovery in the United States.

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Sum2 offers SME’s the Profit|Optimizer to help them manage risk, devise recovery strategies and make better informed capital allocation decisions.

For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website.

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Risk: unemployment, recession, recovery, SME