UBS to Clients, "You're on the List!"

UBS, announced that it will inform American clients whether information out their bank accounts will be turned over to the US Justice Department in a tax evasion investigation. UBS is required to disclose information on over 4,300 American citizens who are clients of the firms private banking division. The US Justice Department believes that wealthy Americans are using these accounts to conceal assets and are using the bank to hide money under the protection of Switzerland's storied bank secrecy laws.

UBS has so far refused to name the individuals in public. U.S. authorities, meanwhile, have hoped that the identities of the individuals on the list would be kept secret for longer so that more Americans with undeclared assets abroad might come forward under a recently extended tax amnesty program.

According to a bank spokesperson, "UBS is currently examining which client relationships fulfill the government's criteria of 'tax fraud." The review may take some months but UBS is committed to informing clients that they are affected by the tax evasion investigation. UBS has already informed 500 clients that they are the subject of an investigation by the US Justice Department.

The IRS on Monday said it would extend its deadline for an amnesty program that has been flooded with applications from people who hid assets overseas. The program promises no jail time and reduced penalties for tax dodgers who come forward.

The financial services industry can expect these types of investigations to become more commonplace. Institutions that offer hedge funds and investment products that cater to High Net Worth investors will increasingly become subject to greater scrutiny as the US Treasury Department and its enforcement arm the IRS moves to insure that compliance with tax laws and statutes are adhered too.

This resolution signifies that the IRS is serious about its intention to ramp up enforcement of the tax code. The IRS has enhanced its focus on US citizens and corporations utilizing foreign banks and offshore investment vehicles. The agency is concerned that investment products and financial services offered by foreign banks have enabled US citizens and corporations to avoid tax liabilities. Products such as credit cards, hedge funds and other investment partnerships are coming under the exacting microscope of the IRS.

The IRS is under pressure to enforce compliance with federal tax statutes. The US Treasury coffers are seriously depleted and the IRS is is looking to assure all taxable revenue streams are identified and taxpayers pay taxes on all capital gains and income. The IRS has developed an Industry Focus Issue, (IFI) audit strategy. IFI's provides IRS field auditors tax risk profiles of investment partnerships and other corporate entities that use offshore domiciles to harbor assets. IFI guides field audit personnel through a risk based assessment of investment partnerships. The IFI aggregates and ranks Three Tiers of high risk tax compliance issues. Examiners will conduct rigorous reviews of these issue sensitive factors. Many of the factors concern the recognition of income and assets in custody outside of the US and repatriation of revenue derived in foreign domiciles.

Sum2 has published a product, IRS Audit Risk Program (IARP) that guides corporate tax managers and tax professionals through a risk assessment of their exposure to IFI risk factors. The IARP is a strategic tool that corporate tax professionals utilize to score risk exposures, determine mitigation actions, estimate remediation expenses and manage tax controversy defense strategies. The IARP is available for purchase on Amazon.com.

Risk: tax evasion, compliance, reputation, prison

G-20 Mulls Sustainable Recovery

Last year when the G-20 convened in November it was billed as the Bretton Woods II. The global economy was in the throes of a banking crisis that rivaled the Great Depression of the 1930's. Central bankers and political leaders were struggling to formulate the right mix of policies to strike the proper balance of interventionist programs needed to arrest the accelerating economic decline brought on by the frozen credit markets. Most believe it worked.

Today in Pittsburgh, conferees will begin to assess weather the accommodative monetary policies, massive capital infusion programs and historic low interest rates can continue to stabilize the global banking system and bear fruit of real economic growth. Though economic growth appears to have emerged in the US and the EU, there is a concern that recovery has become too dependent on the massive government stimulus programs. The development of a stimulus exit strategy will certainly be on the G-20 agenda. How to sustain economic recovery without the massive government spending programs is the primary challenge that G-20 leaders need to address.

Global trade agreements and a consistent tax policy across G-20 domiciles will also be areas of focus for conferees. Regulatory tax arbitrage is an issue that G-20 countries are keen to address. The days of utilizing domiciles with favorable tax laws to protect assets and revenue derived from a domicile with a less accommodating tax structure is an area that all tax hungry G-20 countries want resolved. Recognizing taxable revenue streams and repatriating capital gains taxes are particularly pressing concerns considering the massive budget deficits many countries are confronted with.

Global trade issues and the East/West balance of trade continues as concern for conference participants. The fall of the dollar and China's growing reticence to continue their purchase of US government debt is an interesting backdrop to the brewing trade spat over US tariffs imposed on the importation of tires manufactured in China. China has retaliated with an examination of US trade practices and American's need to keep their fingers crossed that China continues to regularly appear at the government bond auctions with its sizable check book.

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Risk: trade, recession, political, economic

Banking is Getting Expensive

The severity of the banking crisis is evident in the 95 banks the FDIC has closed during 2009. The inordinate amount of bank failures has placed a significant strain on the FDIC insurance fund. The FDIC insurance fund protects bank customers from losing their deposits when the FDIC closes an insolvent bank.

The depletion of the FDIC Insurance fund is accelerating at an alarming rate. At the close of the first quarter, the FDIC bank rescue fund had a balance of $13 billion. Since that time three major bank failures, BankUnited Financial Corp, Colonial BancGroup and Guaranty Financial Group depleted the fund by almost $11 billion. In addition to these three large failures over 50 banks have been closed during the past six months. Total assets in the fund are at its lowest level since the close of the S&L Crisis in 1992. Bank analysts research suggests that FDIC may require $100 billion from the insurance fund to cover the expense of an additional 150 to 200 bank failures they estimate will occur through 2013. This will require massive capital infusions into the FDIC insurance fund. The FDIC's goal of maintaining confidence in functioning credit markets and a sound banking system may yet face its sternest test.

FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair is considering a number of options to recapitalize the fund. The US Treasury has a $100 billion line of credit available to the fund. Ms. Bair is also considering a special assessment on bank capital and may ask banks to prepay FDIC premiums through 2012. The prepay option would raise about $45 billion. The FDIC is also exploring capital infusions from foreign banking institutions, Sovereign Wealth Funds and traditional private equity channels.

Requiring banks to prepay its FDIC insurance premiums will drain economic capital from the industry. The removal of $45 billion dollars may not seem like a large amount but it is a considerable amount of capital that banks will need to withdraw from the credit markets with the prepay option. Think of the impact a targeted lending program of $45 billion to SME's could achieve to incubate and restore economic growth. Sum2 advocates the establishment of an SME Development Bank to encourage capital formation for SMEs to achieve economic growth.

Adding stress to the industry, banks remain obligated to repay TARP funds they received when the program was enacted last year. To date only a fraction of TARP funds have been repaid. Banks also remain under enormous pressure to curtail overdraft, late payment fees and reduce usurious credit card interest rates. All these factors will place added pressures on banks financial performance. Though historic low interest rates and cost of capital will help to buttress bank profitability, high write offs for bad debt, lower fee income and decreased loan origination will test the patience of bank shareholders. Management will surely respond with a new pallet of transaction and penalty fees to maintain a positive P&L statement. Its like a double taxation for citizens. Consumers saddled with additional tax liabilities to maintain a solvent banking system will also incur higher fees by their banks so they can repay the loans extended by the US Treasury to assure a well functioning financial system for the republic's citizenry.

Risk: bank failures, regulatory, profitability, political, recession, economic recovery, SME

ADP Reports 250,000 More Jobs Lost in September

ADP has released its National Employment Report for September. Nonfarm private employment decreased 254,000 during the month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The ADP report indicates that job loss continues to decelerate. Though slowing, the unemployment rate continues to creep higher. The impact of the loss of a quarter of a million jobs is an indication that economic recovery remains sluggish and the US has a long way to go before the benefits of wide spread sustainable growth are realized.

The evaporation of jobs will continue to hinder a broad recovery in the housing market. Yesterday I heard a speaker claim that approximately 25% of homes in Florida are in foreclosure or are behind in their mortgage payments. It is an incredible statistic that speaks volumes about the acute systemic problems of the service based, boom/bust Florida economy.

Highlights of the ADP report include:

Employment from July to August was revised from a decline of 298,000 to a decline of 277,000

September’s employment decline was the smallest since July of 2008

Employment losses have diminished significantly over the last two quarters

Nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 103,000

Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 151,000

Employment in the manufacturing sector dropped 74,000

Employment with large businesses with 500 or more workers declined by 61,000

Employment with medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 93,000

Employment among small-size businesses with fewer than 50 workers, declined 100,000

Employment losses among small-size businesses have diminished in each of the last six months

Construction employment dropped 73,000. This was its thirty-second consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 1,632,000.

Employment in the financial services sector dropped 19,000, the twenty-second consecutive monthly decline.

Sum2 advocates the establishment of an SME Bank adoption of The Hamilton Plan to address the recession.

For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website.

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Risk: unemployment, recession, recovery, political

G-20 Fallout: French Banks Exit Tax Havens

An official at the French Banking Federation announced that French banks plan to close shut branches and subsidiaries in countries considered tax havens. France's banks intend to halt business activities in countries that remain on the OECD's so-called "gray list" at the end of March 2010.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development advocates regulatory standards for global banking industry. It tracks countries that do not comply with the basic regulatory guidelines and publishes a "gray list" of countries that do not comply with international tax information exchange rules.

All French Banks will comply with this action. BNP Paribas earlier announced it will stop operating in countries considered tax havens after the bank indicated that it would close branches in Panama and the Bahamas.

Global hedge funds that operate in OECD non-compliant jurisdictions have an increased tax risk profile. Tax professionals need to assess the potential benefits derived from continued operations in these high risk domiciles with the rising compliance and tax risk factors these jurisdictions pose.

Sum2's IRS Audit Risk Program (IARP) helps tax professionals and compliance managers determine and score risk exposures of investment partnerships IRS Industry Focus Issues.

Click for more information on IARP.

Risk: compliance, regulatory, tax audit, reputation

Regulators Shut Doors on Three More Banks

Regulators have shut Warren Bank in Michigan and and two small banks in Colorado and Minnesota. These closures bring the total to 98 banks closed this year.

The FDIC took over Warren Bank with about $538 million in assets. The Huntington National Bank agreed to assume the deposits and some of the assets of the assets of the failed bank. The FDIC will retain the remaining assets for later disposition. The failure of Warren Bank is expected to cost the deposit insurance fund an estimated $275 million.

Regulators also moved to shut the much smaller Jennings State Bank, in Minnesota. Central Bank agreed to assume the bank's $52.4 million in deposits and essentially all the bank's assets. The FDIC estimates the closing of Jennings State Bank will cost the deposit insurance fund about $11.7 million. A third bank, the Southern Colorado National Bank in Colorado was also clsoed. Legacy Bank agreed to assume the deposits and essentially all the assets of Southern Colorado National Bank. The FDIC said the closing will cost the deposit insurance fund about $6.6 million.

Ninety-eight banks have failed so far this year due to mounting losses on mortgages, commercial real estate and small business loans. The failures have cost the FDIC Insurance fund about $25 billion and the fund needs to raise cash to remain solvent.

Risk: FDIC, banks, credit, SME

Mom and Pop Go Chapter 11

The Wall Street Journal ran an interesting article about the devastating effect the recession is having on family owned businesses. The SBA estimates 90% of U.S. businesses are family-owned. During 2008 about 4.3 million businesses with 19 or fewer employees closed according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If 90% of those firms were family controlled businesses more then 3.8 million families have lost their livelihoods and most likely have also lost a considerable amount of personal wealth. This drastic dissipation of wealth and family control of assets is yet another blow to the middle class. Its impact of entrepreneurial activity and capital formation initiatives may create additional headwinds for the economy seeking to overcome the deep recession.

John Ward a professor at Northwestern University observed "that the economic downturn is really just the latest setback for family-run businesses. In the 1970s and '80s, exorbitant income taxes and estate taxes forced many to close. Before that, the anti-establishment movement during and after the Vietnam War made many children reluctant to take over the family business."

Beth Wood, a family business market development specialist at MassMutual observes that family businesses are "often steeped in tradition and not as flexible to change, tend not to have formal plans in place to respond to crisis. They've seen reductions in top line revenue that they just can't react fast enough to. Problems securing credit in this recession have also prevented some family businesses from getting the funding they need."

Ms. Wood makes an interesting observation about the importance of business agility. The need to assess the rapidly changing market dynamics is a critical exercise that SMEs must undertake. Business as usual will not get it done. SMEs must begin to transform itself to better align its business model to rapidly changing markets. Conducting a thorough risk assessment and opportunity discovery exercise is critical to creating a sustainable business enterprise. Sum2's Profit|Optimizer is a critical tool that helps SME managers assess risks, spot opportunities and initiate actions to achieve business growth and profitability.

Family owned enterprises must overcome the gravity of generational business cultures that inhibit and resist change. SMEs will survive and thrive if they can identify emerging opportunities the current business cycle is creating. SME's will survive and thrive if they have the will, resourcefulness and a supportive culture to change. These are the qualities required for long term sustainability and growth. Business as usual is giving way to a "New Normal," where adaptability to structural market changes are keys to asset preservation and wealth creation.

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Risk: family trusts, asset preservation, small business, bankruptcy

Rutgers Job Study: Full Employment By 2017!

Rutgers University has released a sobering study on expected recovery rates in employment levels for the United States economy. The study, America's New Post-Recession Employment Arithmetic indicates that the employment deficit has grown so large that it may take until 2017 for the nation’s labor market to return to its pre-recession level.The study, released by the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy is a cause for concern. The study reports that the US economy has shed over 7 million jobs since the recession officially began in December 2007. This has reduced the total number of jobs in the United States by 5.8%, the largest drop during any downturn since World War II. The authors of the study, James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca, project that the employment deficit will total 9.4 million private sector jobs by the end of the year.

The study estimates that if the economy adds more than 2 million jobs annually starting next year, it would take until August 2017 – more than seven and a half years – to both recover the jobs lost since December 2007 and create new positions for the roughly 1.3 million people who join the labor force each year.

Hughes and Seneca believe that a recovery in 2017 may be an optimistic assumption. An economic expansion that lasts for seven years is about 50 percent longer than the average for postwar recoveries. Hughes and Seneca refer to the last ten years as “The Lost Employment Decade,” because the U.S. is on track to finish this year with 1.3 million fewer total jobs than it had in December 1999. “This is the first time since the Great Depression of the 1930s that America will have an absolute loss of jobs over the course of a decade” the report states.

The past decade has witnessed a startling reversal in economic fortunes for the US economy. The U.S. finished the 1990s with 19 million more private sector jobs than it had at the start of the decade. Approximately 16 million jobs were created during the 1980s. Before the recession, annual rate of job growth was about 1 million jobs per year, about half of the growth rates of the previous two decades.

Hughes and Seneca believe that this will force states into fierce competition to realize job growth. States must respond by creating desirable environment for business based on costs, affordability, business climates, support infrastructure, labor force quality and tax policies.

We believe that joblessness and unemployment continue as significant threats to economic growth. The conception of the unemployment rate as a lagging indicator is emerging as a lead driver inhibiting economic recovery. High unemployment continues to inhibit consumer spending and works against a rebound in the housing market and related construction industries. Retailers are already bemoaning the bleak forecast for this years holiday shopping season. State and local governments reeling from dwindling tax receipts are beginning to crack under the strain to fund basic community services, public schools and social assistance programs.

The structural dysfunction of the American economy is a critical issue that must be addressed. A concerted program aimed at the development and incubation of SME manufactures will encourage the entrepreneurial energy and kick start badly needed economic drivers to ignite a recovery. Sum2 advocates the adoption of The Hamilton Plan and the creation of an SME Development Bank to reestablish sustainable growth and national prosperity.

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(RU and Bruce, Perfect Together)

Risk: unemployment, job creation, SME, political stability, recession

A Growing Contagion: One in Seven Companies Are a Credit Risk

The H1N1 Swine flu threat may be the big topic on CNN but a growing contagion of financial distress is widely infecting small and mid-sized enterprises (SME) with potentially fatal consequences.

CFO magazine reports that 14% of companies are struggling to pay their bills or are at risk for bankruptcy. These findings are the result of a study CFO conducted on 1500 Midcap companies. The 2009 Credit Risk Benchmarking Report indicated that 550 companies of the 1500 made the credit watch list and over 200 of the names were in or are entering a distressed financial condition.

The report measures each company on three factors: cash as a percent of revenue, days payable outstanding (DPO), and DPO relative to the DPO of that company's industry. The last of these measures is intended to expose which companies are under performing regardless of the economic condition of their industry as a whole. A company scoring low in all three areas is rated a potential credit risk.

The strain of a two-year recession and limited credit access is taking its toll on small and mid-sized businesses. This development is not surprising. The recession has hurt sales growth across all market segments. Banks, still reeling from the credit crisis are still concerned about troubled assets on their balance sheets. Bankers can't afford more write downs on non-performing loans. Banks remain highly risk adverse to credit default exposures and have drastically reduced credit risk to SMEs by shutting down new lending activity.

Reduced revenue, protracted softness in the business cycle and closed credit channels are creating perfect storm conditions for SME's. Bank's reluctance to lend and the high cost of capital from other alternative credit channels coupled with weak cash flows from declining sales are creating liquidity problems for many SMEs. As a defensive maneuver, SMEs are extending payment cycles to vendors to preserve cash. This same cash management practice is also being employed by their clients resulting in an agonizing daisy chain of liquidity pain. SME's that have concentrated exposures to large accounts are at the mercy of the financial soundness of few or in some instances a single source of revenue.

The growing contagion of financial distress is also a major threat to supply chains. Buyers might prize their ability to drive hard bargains with their suppliers but the concessions won may be the straw that breaks the camels back driving a supplier into insolvency.

It is critical that managers understand all risks associated with clients and suppliers. It is critical that managers assess risks associated with client relationships and key suppliers. In this market, enhanced due diligence is clearly called for. The financial soundness of suppliers and clients must be determined and scored so as to minimize default exposures to your business.

CreditAides is a company that delivers SaaS based financial health assessments on SMEs. CreditAides reports that their clients are becoming more vigilant and thorough in their due diligence of customers and suppliers. They have noted a particular emphasis on the growing practice of reviewing the financial health of suppliers. Supply chain risk is a heightened risk factor for SME's due to their over dependence on single source. Conducting a financial health assessment on key suppliers and other enhanced due diligence practices mitigates a risk factor that could have potentially devastating consequences. SME manager's need to button down their due diligence practices to prevent the sickness from infecting their business.

CreditAides SaaS can be accessed here: www.CreditAides.com

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Risk: contagion, credit risk, counter-party, supply chain, client, recession, banking